New reports show international student enrollment in U.S. colleges is falling sharply, with stricter visa policies playing a central role. The latest figures suggest the decline could deepen in the coming academic year.
Reports released Thursday from the Common App show that overall undergraduate application volume for the 2026-27 academic year rose, but international applicants through March 1 fell 10%, the steepest drop on record for the platform.
Separately, the Fall 2025 Snapshot from the U.S. Department of State and the Institute of International Education found that new international student enrollment in U.S. institutions sank 17% compared with the previous fall. The Institute of International Education’s Spring 2026 Snapshot projected another decline in overall international enrollment for the upcoming fall semester.
Common App data also revealed a pronounced decrease in applicants from Asia and Africa. With fewer prospective students outside the U.S. creating accounts on the application platform, researchers say the pipeline for future international enrollment is likely to shrink further.
The policy shifts behind these trends, introduced by the Trump administration, include the elimination of traditional “duration of status,” a four-year cap on F-1 and J-1 visa stays, limited or delayed visa appointment availability, and country-specific restrictions. Jamie Beaton, cofounder and CEO of the college consulting firm Crimson Education, said such changes will not affect all schools equally. “They’ll accelerate a sorting that was already underway, where institutions that can’t demonstrate clear return on investment lose enrollment and cut programs, and the very top schools like Harvard, Stanford, MIT and Duke continue standing strong,” Beaton said.
A separate analysis from Fitch Ratings, released earlier in August, warned that colleges relying on tuition revenue from foreign students could face financial jeopardy because of the four-year cap. “Sustained drops in new international student enrollment can have outsized revenue effects, as international students often pay full tuition or receive less institutional aid than domestic students,” Fitch analysts said. “Lost revenue is hard to replace quickly.”
Universities with large graduate and STEM programs, where degree completion can exceed four years, will find it harder to sustain their enrollment pipeline, the analysts noted. Those institutions may also incur higher costs to address overseas recruitment challenges.
Beaton said the real impact lands a few tiers down. “Mid-ranked private colleges and regional public flagships are quite reliant on full-pay international students, and when those applicants start to diversify to the U.K., Australia or Singapore, these schools can’t backfill the revenue since the domestic pipeline is shrinking with the demographic cliff, and they can’t raise prices on a market already questioning their ROI,” he said.
The U.S. remains the top host of international students, particularly from India and China. NAFSA: Association of International Educators estimates this year’s enrollment decline could cost local economies a collective $3.4 billion, and put as many as 40,000 U.S. jobs at risk.
Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA, said in a statement, “The projections underscore what we’ve long warned: U.S. policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future, and their decisions carry significant short- and long-term consequences for U.S. society and economy.”
