Bitcoin’s sharp rally this week has pushed the cryptocurrency to heights not seen since May, but speculators on the prediction platform Kalshi expect the year to close with prices hovering near where they trade today.
Bitcoin has climbed more than 20% over the past several days, reaching levels last seen in the spring. Yet the traders who use Kalshi to wager on future prices are signaling that the surge may have largely run its course.
According to an average of contracts on the platform, speculators estimate that bitcoin will be worth around $75,000 at the end of 2026. That forecast is based on a series of yes or no trades tied to whether the cryptocurrency falls within various $5,000 price bands at midnight on Jan. 1, 2027. The contracts are settled using bitcoin price data from CF Benchmarks.
This week’s rally has been fueled by two main catalysts. First, the U.S. Treasury stepped in to ease a sell-off in the bond market, which in turn relieved downward pressure on risk assets like bitcoin. Second, a White House gathering brought together President Donald Trump, crypto executives, and regulators who urged Congress to pass the market structure Clarity Act, a proposal that would establish clearer rules for digital assets.
Before Wednesday, Kalshi traders had viewed it as most likely that bitcoin would end the year around $66,000. The improved outlook follows the recent price surge, but the latest projection still points to a slight dip from current trading levels. Bitcoin was last trading above $77,000.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
While the rally has brightened the year-end picture, Kalshi traders appear to believe bitcoin’s upside is limited from here.
