The U.S. military has helped move more than 660 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since early May, assisting roughly 1,300 commercial vessels across one of the world’s most volatile waterways, Central Command told CNBC this week.
In a statement Thursday, U.S. Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a Central Command spokesperson, said the military had aided approximately 1,300 commercial vessels since early May. ‘Multiple routes remain free and open for commercial transit,’ Hawkins said.
Central Command’s latest tally, shared with CNBC this week, implies that at least 160 million barrels of oil, or more than 7 million barrels per day, moved through the strait over the past three weeks. The command previously said on July 29 that U.S. forces had assisted 500 million barrels since May.
Those totals still fall far short of the roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined products that passed through Hormuz before the war. But they show that a significant volume of oil continues to move despite Iranian threats and attacks.
Exactly how much oil is exiting the strait daily remains unclear, with U.S. estimates consistently exceeding independent ship tracking data. U.S. officials told Axios on Wednesday that about 10 million barrels per day have flowed out in recent weeks, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Aug. 11 that the average for the previous seven days had climbed to nearly 9 million barrels per day. Windward, a maritime intelligence firm, puts July average crude exports at about 5 million barrels per day, compared with 4 million in June and 1.6 million in May.
Windward senior maritime intelligence analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann said exports are expected to rise again in August. ‘My assessment is that it’s scaling and it’s scaling quickly despite the fact that Iran is placing enormous pressure on maritime security,’ she said. ‘The Gulf states have got U.S military protection. That’s not a secret.’ Those states, she added, are ‘ready to do whatever they can’ to increase their oil exports through the strait.
Tracking the true volume is especially hard in wartime, said Bridget Diakun, maritime intelligence and research director at Lloyd’s List. She noted that ships often transit at night, while satellite imagery is typically snapped in the morning. ‘There’s a lot of unknowns,’ Diakun said at a Thursday briefing.
Wright, who has a critical role in energy policy, pushed back on the private estimates. Last week he said ‘many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway.’ In a social media post, he wrote: ‘In coordination with the U.S. military, the U.S. Department of Energy maintains the best available data related to oil and oil products leaving the Arabian gulf.’
The security situation in the strait remains fiercely contested. Iran said Tuesday it has closed the waterway until the U.S. meets its obligations under the interim peace deal signed June 17. President Donald Trump has insisted the strait is open and under U.S. control.
Traffic through Hormuz has been split for months between two shipping lanes. The U.S. military assists vessels on a southern route along Oman’s coast and has imposed a naval blockade against Iranian ports. Tehran, meanwhile, has demanded that ships use a northern route through its territorial waters or risk attack.
‘It’s a contested security situation in the Strait of Hormuz,’ said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, one of the world’s largest shipping trade associations. At its narrowest point, the strait is just 21 miles wide. ‘The U.S. has more control closer to Oman and Iran has more control closer to its coastline,’ Larsen said. ‘But both sides are still able to project power on either side of the strait.’ He added: ‘It’s not really possible for either side to completely defend their own interests in the territorial waters of Oman and the territorial waters of Iran.’
The risks are measurable. At least 17 commercial ships came under attack in and around the strait in July and August, according to the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency. At least four sailors died and more than a dozen suffered injuries.
The rewards are equally striking. Bockmann said tankers making the transit earn $500,000 a day, while sailors receive double or triple their normal pay. ‘It’s a very intense, serious operation to get the oil out. High risk, high profit,’ she said.
With Washington and Tehran each asserting command of the waterway, and official and private estimates diverging, the only clear reality is that oil continues to move through Hormuz under a heavy U.S. military umbrella, and at a steep price.
